A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
